子女数量对农村家庭经济决策的影响——兼谈对“二孩政策”的启示

The Influence of the Number of Children on Economic Decision-making in RuralHouseholds: Enlightenment of “Two Children Policy”

生育政策的放开会通过家庭经济决策的变化影响经济增长,而在目前国内需求不足、产能过剩的背景下,家庭消费对经济增长的拉动作用显得尤为重要。本文选择2013CHIP农村调查数据,研究二孩及以上孩次在未进入劳动力市场阶段对家庭经济行为的影响。在利用工具变量研究后发现,在子女抚养阶段,子女数量增多对家庭储蓄率显著呈负向影响,并通过了熵平衡法、倾向得分法、分位数回归法等稳健性检验。从家庭收入的来源和开支进行机制研究,分析对家庭消费支出产生的异质性影响,发现在食品、衣着、教育文化和其他用品服务上的消费支出显著增加,预示着对相关行业需求拉动作用将比较明显。在"二孩政策"实施后,本文的结论将有助于研究农村家庭储蓄和消费的变化趋势,及预期对经济需求的拉动作用,为公共政策制定者提供一定的政策指引。

The liberalization of fertility policy affects economic growth through changes in household economic decision-making. In the context of insufficient domestic demand and overcapacity, the role of household consumption in economic growth is particularly important. This paper chooses the 2013 CHIP rural survey data to study the impact of two children and above on the economic behavior of the family without entering the labor market stage. Using appropriate instrumental variables, it was found that the increase in the number of children in the child support phase had a significant negative effect on the household savings rate, and passed the entropy balance method, propensity score method, and quantile regression test. Study the mechanism of family income from sources and expenditures, analyze the heterogeneity impact on household consumption expenditures, and find that consumption expenditures on food, clothing, education, culture, and other supplies services have increased significantly, indicating a pull for demand in related industries. The conclusion of this paper will help to study the changes of household savings and consumption after the implementation of the "two-child policy" and the stimulating effect on economic demand, and provide some policy guidelines for public policy makers.