海外市场风险如何影响中国企业的国际化进程?

How Does Overseas Market Risk Affect the Internationalization of Chinese Companies?

海外市场风险是促使企业采取循序渐进的国际化策略的关键因素。文章构建了一个异质性企业国际化选择的两周期模型,论证了风险不确定条件下企业的动态国际化路径:企业首先会通过出口尝试获得盈利能力,如果盈利水平低于出口成本,企业将会退出市场,反之企业持续出口;如果盈利水平足够高,企业将会开始对外直接投资。文章运用企业-年份-目的国层面的2005～2013年具有出口、对外直接投资信息的全新数据实证研究发现,企业在国外市场的出口经验对于开始投资该市场的概率有正向影响。出口经验的作用在很大程度上取决于国外市场风险的不确定性,当企业投资于市场风险更大的目的地时,获得出口经验就显得更为重要。

The overseas market risk is the key factor that promotes enterprises to adopt gradual internationalization strategy. This paper constructs a two-cycle model of internationalization choice for heterogeneous firms and demonstrates the dynamic internationalization path of firms under uncertain conditions. Firstly,enterprises will try to gain profitability by exporting. If the profitability level is lower than the export cost,enterprises will quit the market;otherwise,enterprises will continue to export. If the profit level is high enough,enterprises will start foreign direct investment. Using the new data empirical research on export and foreign direct investment information from 2005 ~ 2013 at the enterprise-year-destination level,it is found that the export experience of enterprises in foreign markets has a positive impact on the probability of start invest ment in the market,and the role of export experience depends to a large extent on the uncertainty of foreign markets,that is,when companies invest in destinations where market conditions are more uncertain,it is more important to gain export experience.