基于稀疏多项式混沌展开的可用输电能力不确定性量化分析

Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion Based Uncertainty Quantification for Available Transfer Capability

作为未来电力系统的重要特征,高比例可再生能源并网显著增强了电力系统运行的不确定性。在此背景下,量化不确定性因素对可用输电能力(available transfer capability,ATC)的影响,对于保障电力市场交易顺利开展和互联电网安全稳定运行具有重要意义。为此,提出一种基于稀疏多项式混沌展开(sparse polynomial chaos expansion,sPCE)的概率ATC计算和全局灵敏度分析(global sensitivity analysis,GSA)方法。该方法仅需要较少次数的确定性ATC计算便能够获得ATC概率特征和输入随机变量的全局灵敏度指标。通过IEEE118节点系统下多个测试场景的算例分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

As the important feature of future power systems, high proportion of renewable energy integration increases the operational uncertainty of the power system. The fast and accurate evaluation of available transfer capability(ATC) is of great significance to ensure electricity market transaction and stability of interconnected grids. Quantifying the impact of uncertainty factors can help the following planning and operating of the system. Therefore, a sparse polynomial chaos expansion(sPCE) based probabilistic ATC assessment and global sensitivity analysis(GSA) method was proposed. In the method, sPCE was built after few times of deterministic ATC evaluations and employed instead of the original model to perform the probabilistic ATC and calculate the sensitivity indices. The case studies on IEEE 118 bus system with several scenarios demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.