摘要
上海原油期货作为我国第一个对外开放的期货品种,其平稳运行对于我国期货市场的发展和国际石油定价体系的重塑意义重大。通过建立SVAR模型和运用GRANGER检验,对上海原油期货价格与BRENT和WTI等国际原油期货价格的联动性进行了分析,并运用GS模型对上海原油期货价格和大庆原油现货价格之间的引导关系进行估计,研究发现上海原油期货与BRENT和WTI原油期货之间存在非对称的均值溢出效应,BRENT和WTI期货收益率变动对上海原油期货收益率变动有单向溢出影响;上海原油期货价格对大庆原油现货价格具有微弱的引导关系,表明上海原油期货市场已初步具备价格发现功能。
Shanghai crude oil futures is the first open futures product in China.Its stable operation is of great significance to the development of China’s futures market and the reshaping of the international petroleum pricing system.Through the establishment of SVAR model and the use of GRANGER test,the linkage between Shanghai crude oil futures price and international crude oil futures prices such as BRRENT and WTI was analyzed,and the guiding relationship between Shanghai crude oil futures price and Daqing crude oil spot price was evaluated by using GS model.The study found that there is an asymmetric mean spillover effect between Shanghai crude oil futures and BRENT and WTI crude oil futures,and BRENT and WTI futures yield changes have a one-way spillover effect on Shanghai crude oil futures yield changes;Shanghai crude oil futures price has a weak guiding relationship with the spot price of Daqing crude oil,indicating that the Shanghai crude oil futures market has initially established price discovery function.
作者
高丽
高世宪
GAO Li;GAO Shi-xian(School of Finance,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012;Institutue of Energy Research,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100038)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2019年第6期22-29,共8页
基金
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“能源商品金融化、价格冲击与中国-中亚金融合作研究”(编号:71764028)
新疆自治区科技厅软科学项目“新疆绿色金融发展的对策研究”(编号:2018D07022)资助
