2014～2016年间郑州市控制PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)污染的健康效益评估

Health Benefit Evaluation for PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) Pollution Control in Zhengzhou, China, 2014-2016

根据郑州市2014～2016年间大气中PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)年平均浓度数值,采用泊松回归相对危险模型,评估了控制PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)污染后所能带来的95%置信区间下的健康效应及健康效益.结果表明,2014～2016年间,PM_(10)浓度达到二级限值后所带来的经济效益(以亿元计,括号中为置信区间,下同)分别为181.8(150.4,211.2)、242.5(202.5,279.4)和206.2(173.3,239.2),分别占郑州市当年生产总值的2.7%、3.3%和2.5%;PM_(2.5)浓度达标后所带来的经济效益分别为178.8(143.7,211.6)、216.5(174.6,255.3)和172.5(137.8,205.5),分别占郑州市当年生产总值的2.6%、3.0%和2.1%.PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度达标后,城镇受益人数高于农村,急性支气管炎减少人数高于其他健康终端,对于慢性支气管炎,成人受益比儿童大,哮喘则相反.慢性支气管炎人数减少带来的健康经济效益最高,其次为哮喘,门诊和住院的健康效益最低.

Based on the annual average concentration values,the health effects and health benefits as well as 95% confidence intervals of PM10 and PM2.5 pollution control from 2014 to 2016 in Zhengzhou were evaluated by applying the Poisson regression relative risk model.Results showed that the health benefits of PM10 pollution control were 18.18 billion RMB (15.04,21.12),24.25 billion RMB ( 20.25,27.94 ),and 20.62 billion RMB (17.33,23.92 ),which accounted for 2.7%,3.3%,and 2.5% of the GDP of Zhengzhou,respectively,in 2014-2016.The health benefits of PM2.5 pollution control were 17.88 billion RMB (14.37,21.16), 21.65 billion RMB (17.46,25.53),and 17.25 billion RMB (13.78,20.55),which accounted for 2.6%,3.0%,and 2.1% of the GDP of Zhengzhou,respectively,in 2014-2016.After the PM10 and PM2.5 pollution was controlled,the number of urban beneficiaries was higher than that of rural areas,and acute bronchitis beneficiaries were higher than the beneficiaries of other health end-points.For chronic bronchitis,adults benefited more than children,while the opposite occurred for asthma.In this study,chronic bronchitis had the highest health benefit,followed by asthma,and outpatient and inpatient setting had the lower health benefits.