实体经济和虚拟经济失衡发展微观机制研究——基于长三角上市企业的经验证据

A Study on the Microcosmic Mechanism of Unbalanced Development between Real and Virtual Economy:Empirical Evidence from Listed Companies in the Yangtze River Delta

如何提高实体经济的发展质量,是我国当前面临的一个严峻问题。而实体经济的发展困境,从很大程度上来说是由于实体经济与虚拟经济的发展失衡,这其中的一个重要表现就是大量的实体企业将过多的资源投入到虚拟经济。文章试图从微观层面来分析企业涉足虚拟经济的内在机制,以及个体企业脱实向虚的行为到产业低质量发展的传导机制。首先通过建立一个生产互补性产品的双寡头博弈模型,从研发外溢的角度研究了虚拟经济如何通过影响研发投入,最终对个体企业的盈利能力产生冲击。研究结论显示,具有高回报特征的虚拟经济,会对企业的研发投入产生挤占效应,进而导致所有企业和整体产业同时陷入低利润的"囚徒困境"。文章还对我国制造业最发达并且虚拟经济也非常活跃的长三角地区的上市企业数据进行了实证分析,研究结果表明虚拟经济的确会对企业研发产生抑制,进而损害其盈利能力,并且以房地产为代表的虚拟经济的发展会进一步强化上述负面影响。

Improving development quality of real economy is a serious issue faced by China in recent years. The difficulties faced by real economy is significantly related to the unbalanced development between real and virtual economy, with an important characteristic that many entity enterprises put too many resources in virtual economy. This paper attempts to analyze w h y firms participate in virtual economy and how their departure from real economy to virtual economy leads to industry's low-quality development. By setting up a duopoly game of firms producing complements,we study how virtual economy undermines firm’s profitability through its influence on R & D investment, from the perspective of R &- D spillover. Results indicate that high return from virtual economy can crowd out firm’s R & D investment,thereby leads to a prison dilemma with low profits for each firm and the whole industry. By investigating data from listed companies in Yangtze River Delta, which is the most developed area of manufacturing and has a quite active virtual economy as well, this paper finds that virtual economy does result in R & D inhibition,thereby damages enterprises' profitability. Furthermore, the development of virtual economy represented by real estate industry can enhance this negative impact.