中国PM2.5序列惯性特征及政策含义

Analysis of inertial characteristics of PM2.5 sequences and its policy implications in China

基于北京、成都、广州、上海、沈阳5大城市2009~2017年的小时PM2.5质量浓度监测数据,利用AR模型、未知内生结构断点检验和TAR模型等方法实证分析了PM2.5序列惯性特征、结构变化和放大效应.研究发现,5大城市PM2.5序列惯性均较强,其中成都PM2.5序列惯性最强,北京、上海和广州在2009~2017年之间发生了结构性变化.5大城市的PM2.5序列存在明显的非线性,各大城市PM2.5总体在低区制运行,而且惯性特征明显,但不存在明显的放大效应,这就意味着雾霾防治不需要考虑PM2.5序列的放大效应,未来政策应当更加聚焦于低区制下PM2.5序列惯性特征.

This paper empirically analyzed the inertial characteristics, structural changes and amplification effects of PM2.5 sequences using AR model and TAR model, using hourly PM2.5 mass concentration monitoring data from 2009 to 2017 in Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang. There existed relatively strong inertia of PM2.5 sequences in the five cities, especially in Chengdu. It was also found that there were structural changes from 2009 to 2017 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The PM2.5 sequences of the five cities are obviously nonlinear. The PM2.5 in the five cities were running at a low level, and the inertial characteristics were obvious. In addition, there was no obvious amplification effect, suggesting that the haze pollution prevention was not necessary to consider the amplification effect of the PM2.5 sequence. The inertial characteristics of the PM2.5 sequences at the low regime required more attention in policy-making in the future.