中国非洲猪瘟疫情风险防控体系研究

The risk prevention and control system of China’s African swine fever epidemic situation

自2018年8月至2019年1月8日,中国已有24个省份相继发生100起非洲猪瘟(ASF)疫情,目前疫情尚未得到有效控制,存在进一步扩散至全国的风险。针对该病的流行现状及影响,提出要吸取国外ASF防控的教训,根据中国实际情况,构建政府、生猪合作社、生猪养殖户三位一体的ASF疫情风险防控体系,即以实现三方利益最大化为出发点、合理布局与组织为主线、防控业务流程为核心、三方博弈均衡下疫情信息充分对称为最终落脚点的动态网络,以期能把控疫情,最终根除ASF,实现提高政府治理能力的战略目标。

100 cases of African swine fever(ASF) had been found continuously in 24 provinces of China since August2018 to January 8, 2019. At present, the epidemic is continuing and there is a potential risk of further spread to the whole country. In the view of the current status of the disease and its potential impact, based on the lessons of ASF prevention and control in other countries and taken the consideration of the situation in China, we constructed a complicated system of Trinity ASF epidemic risk prevention and control system centered on the government, pig cooperatives and pig farmers.This system, which is a dynamic interactive network with maximizing the interests of the three parties as the starting point, rational layout and organization as the main line, prevention and control business process as the core, and full symmetry of epidemic information as the final destination under the tripartite game equilibrium,to some extent, will alleviated the spread of the epidemic from the perspective of organizational structure, and prevent the epidemic originally,with a goal to achieving the strategic goal of improving the government’s ability to manage the epidemic.