新农保对农村老人预期退休行为的影响

The Effect of the New Rural Pension Scheme on Expected Retirement Behavior of Rural Elderly

随着中国农村人口老龄化加剧,农村老人的养老和退休问题成为热点。使用2011年和2013年的CHARLS微观数据,使用倾向得分匹配法和双重差分法,构建面板数据模型,实证研究了新农保对农村老人持续工作意愿和预期退休年龄的影响。研究发现,参加新农保能够显著提升农村老人持续工作意愿(5.34%),对预期退休年龄的影响为正但不显著。个体异质性分析表明其影响方式主要是提升农村老人对未来生活的预期,从而通过劳动来实现美好生活,这种积极转变也被生活满意度和消费意愿的提升所证实。

With aggravating trend of aging population in China rural area,the pension and retirement problem have become the focus.With 2011 and 2013 CHARLS microdata,we used the method of Difference in Difference(DID)and Propensity Score Matching(PSM)to study the effect of new rural pension scheme on the willingness of rural elderly to continue working and the expected retirement ages.The results show that participating in the insurance significantly increase the willingness of the rural elderly to work by5.34%.The impact on the expected retirement age is positive but not significant.The analysis of individual heterogeneity shows that the main mechanism is to increase the expectation of future life,so as to achieve the need for a better life through more labor.This point is later confirmed by the improvement of life satisfaction and consumption willingness.