土地财政与地方政府债务的实证研究——基于省际面板数据的分析

Empirical Research on the Land Finance and Local Government Debt:A Panel Analysis of Provincial Level Data

近年来中国地方债务问题突出,影响地方债务规模的因素已成为政策研究焦点。对土地出让金和土地相关税同地方政府债务规模关系进行实证分析的结果表明:土地出让金对地方政府债务规模有显著的推动作用,但土地相关税与地方政府债务规模并不具备长期均衡关系。综合来看,要想解决当前的地方政府债务问题,需要加快土地出让金的"费用税收化",因地制宜逐步建立地方主体税,同时加强地方债务风险机制建设,防患于未然。

Local debt has been an urgent problem during recent years,and the factors which can affect local debt has been a hot spot among the research.This paper does a empirical research on the land tax,land transferring fees and local government debt.As shown in the results:Land transferring fees has a definit promoting effects on the scale of local government debt,while land tax has nothing to do with the scale of local government debt in the long run.Thus the following methods should be taken to solve the urgent problem of local governemnt debt:Speed up the process of"make land transferring fess taxation";Build up major tax according the location;Reinforce risk mechanism of local debt.