普惠金融对中国产业就业的影响效应——基于总量和结构视角

The Impact of Inclusive Finance on China’s Employment Structure

选取我国2005~2017年31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,采用动态面板模型,测算普惠金融对产业就业的影响。结果发现:(1)在基准回归分析中,从总量效应来看,普惠金融对产业就业总量存在显著的促进作用;从结构效应来看,普惠金融对第一产业就业存在显著的抑制作用,而对第二、三产业就业存在显著的促进作用。(2)在进一步分析中,普惠金融对产业就业的影响表现为地区异质性。其中,东、中部地区普惠金融对第一产业就业存在显著的抑制作用,而对第二、三产业就业存在显著的促进作用;西部地区普惠金融对第一、二产业就业存在显著的抑制作用,而对第三产业就业存在显著的促进作用。

This article makes use of dynamic panel model to explore the impact of inclusive finance on industrial employment, which is based on the panel data from31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) between 2005 and 2017. The conclusions include the followings:(1) In the benchmark regression analysis, from the perspective of total quantity effect, inclusive finance has a signi ficant role in promoting the total employment of the industry;from the perspective of structural effects, inclusive finance has a signi ficant inhibitory effect on the employment of the primary industry, but has a signi ficant role in promoting employment in the secondary and tertiary industries.(2) In further analysis, the influence of inclusive finance on industrial employment is regional heterogeneity. Among them, the inclusive finance in the eastern and central regions has a signi ficant inhibitory effect on the employment of the primary industry, while has a signi ficant role in promoting the employment of the secondary and tertiary industries;the inclusive finance in the western region has a signi ficant inhibitory effect on the employment of the primary and secondary industries, while it has a signi ficant role in promoting the employment of the tertiary industry.