定量地质建模技术应用现状与发展趋势

Application Status and Development Trend of Quantitative Geological Modeling

地质建模是定量描述储层特征的核心技术之一,伴随着石油工业的发展,油田勘探开发面临越来越深入的实际问题,相应地,定量地质建模技术也呈现出突飞猛进的发展态势。地质建模技术按是否考虑成因过程可大体分为基于沉积过程的方法和基于地质统计学的方法两大类,在对各类方法的主要特点、发展历程、应用现状进行归纳总结的基础上,提出这些方法在应用过程中存在的主要问题。基于地质统计学的建模方法是当前应用的主流,其包括确定性建模方法和随机建模方法,阐述了2种方法的应用特点,并分析了确定性建模和随机建模之间的辩证关系。考虑当前及未来的发展需求,从方法创新、技术融合、流程优化及模型质量控制方面提出了定量地质建模技术发展的10个重点攻关方向,以期对定量地质建模有所启示。

Geological modeling is one of the core technologies for quantitatively describing reservoir characteristics. With the development of petroleum industry, the practical problems faced by oilfield exploration and development are getting deeper and deeper, and the corresponding quantitative geological modeling also shows a rapid development trend. Geological modeling can be generally divided into process-based method and statistics-based method according to the genetic process. This paper summarizes the main characteristics, development history and application status of various modeling methods, and puts forward the main problems existing in the application process.The modeling method based on statistics is the mainstream of current application, including the deterministic modeling and the stochastic modeling.The application characteristics of the two methods are described and the dialectical relationship between deterministic modeling and stochastic modeling is analyzed. Considering the current and future development needs, the paper suggests ten key directions for the development of geological modeling to enlighten the modeling profession.