未来30年中国社会发展趋势及促进共享发展的建议

China’s Social Development Trends in the Next 30 Years and Suggestions for Promoting Shared Development

改革开放40年来,随着经济发展和各类社会发展政策的实施,中国社会发展取得了显著成就。中长期来看,社会发展将在经济发展水平提高、经济结构优化、经济体制完善以及人口结构变化、科技进步等一系列因素的推动下,形成新的趋势和特征,社会结构向橄榄型转变,收入分配差距缩小,公共服务水平提高,社会治理转向多元共治。在发展趋势分析基础上,我们提出,未来30年推动中国社会发展的总体思路是以社会结构现代化、基本公共服务均等化、社会治理现代化为目标,以共建、共治、共享为基本原则,推动形成橄榄型社会结构,显著改善收入分配结构,完善包容性的公共服务体系,实现公共服务均等可及,构建开放的社会治理框架,建成公平、安全、和谐、稳定的现代化社会。针对制约社会发展的主要问题特别是体制问题,建议改革户籍制度,强化保障起点、机会平等的基本公共服务,促进阶层间的良性社会流动;建立基本公共服务均等化保障机制,完善再分配政策,缩小不同人群间收入和享有公共服务的差距;动态调整基本公共服务范围和标准,增加供给主体和方式,提高公共服务供给水平、质量和效率;构建社会治理新体制,推进社会治理现代化,维护社会稳定和谐。

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,with economic development and the implementation of various social development policies,China’s social development has made remarkable achievements.In the medium and long term,social development will form new trends and characteristics,driven by a series of factors such as improved economic development level,economic structure optimization,economic system improvement,demographic structure change,and scientific and technological progress.Social structure will change to the olive type,the gap in income distribution will narrow,the level of public services will increase,and social governance will turn to pluralistic governance.On the basis of development trend analysis,we propose that the overall thinking for promoting China’s social development in the next 30 years is to aim at the modernization of social structure,the equalization of basic public services,and the modernization of social governance,with the principles of co-construction,co-governance and sharing.Promote the formation of an olive-type social structure,significantly improve the income distribution structure,improve the inclusive public service system,achieve equal access to public services,build an open social governance framework,and build a fair,safe,harmonious,and stable modern society.In view of the main problems that restrict social development,especially the institutional problems,the followed suggestions are proposed.Reform the household registration system,strengthen the basic public services that guarantee the starting point and equal opportunities,promote the benign social mobility between the classes.Establish a basic public service equalization guarantee mechanism,improve the redistribution policy,and reduce the gap between incomes and public services among different groups of people. Dynamically adjust the scope and standards of basic public services,increase supply subjects and methods,improve the level,quality and efficiency of public service supply. Build a new system of social governance,promote the modernization of social governance,and maintain the society stable and harmonious.