中国石油需求放缓背景下新一轮炼油产能扩张解析

The new round of China’s refining capacity expansion under the oil demand slowdown

中国石油需求增速放缓,甚至可能在2030年前后达峰。在此背景下,炼油产业仍保持旺盛的投资热情,主要原因是行业准入开放,现阶段炼油效益向好,吸引大量民营资本进入。未来结构转型将成为这一轮炼油投资的新特点,炼油企业将更加注重大型化、一体化、高端化和绿色化发展。今后,中国炼油企业集中度将进一步提高,成品油收率下降,化工原料收率上升,以满足市场需求的结构性变化。外资企业的进入,带来炼化一体化发展新技术和模式,有利于促进产业升级。中国炼油产业的新一轮扩能周期正在加速产业格局重构和利润流向迁移,在投资热潮下需警惕市场风险的加剧,需要注意价格市场化带来的冲击。

China’s oil refining industry still remains enthusiastic about investment even if the oil demand growth slowed down and may even reach its peak around 2030.The main reason is that the opening-up policy of industry access and pretty good efficiency attracted a large number of private capitals to enter.In the future,structural transformation will be the new feature of this round of investment in oil refining industry,and oil refining enterprises will pay more attention to large-scale,integrated,high-end and green development.The concentration ratio of China’s oil refining enterprises will further increase,the yield of refined oil will decrease,and the yield of chemical raw materials will be up to meet the structural changes in market demand.The entry of foreign-funded enterprises will bring new technologies and modes of integrated development of refining and petrochemical industry,which is conducive to promoting industrial upgrading.The new round of capacity expansion cycle of China’s oil refining industry is accelerating the restructuring of industrial structure and profit flow migration.Under the investment boom,we should be alert to the aggravation of market risks and the impact of price liberalization.