2018年世界和中国石化工业综述及2019年展望

2018 review and 2019 outlook of global and China’s petrochemical industry

2018年是世界石化市场的产能扩张之年、消费复苏之年和盈利景气之年,行业整体表现处于2000年以来最好的一段时期。在废旧料禁令、煤改气、去产能和抢出口等因素支撑下,中国石化产品消费保持了良好的增长势头。2019年,世界石化行业盈利水平将迎来阶段性下降,但整体仍处于高位;全球聚乙烯、对二甲苯和甲醇等石化产品贸易格局或将发生重大调整,欧洲将面临北美新增产能的巨大输入压力,东南亚或将成为连接中美的重要缓冲环节。中国石化工业全产业链产能将大幅增长,非传统路线产能集中投产,民营和外资独资企业迎来新发展。但是,由于2018年废旧料等政策红利消退,抢出口透支,传统消费领域放缓,2019年国内石化产品增速将出现下滑,中国石化产品供需格局将发生显著改变,各产业链盈利也将出现不同程度下降。

World petrochemical industry has begun another round of expansion,consumption got recovery,and gain& boom in 2018 and is,as a whole,performing at its best since 2000.In China,the waste-ban policy,coal to gas policy,de-capacity policy and large export had boosted the domestic consumption.In 2019,world petrochemical industry margin will slightly descend but still better than most of the time.World polyethylene,PX and methanol trade will face a dramatic rebalance.The European will have to take more polyethylene import from the US and the Southeast Asia will be an important hub for petrochemical trade between China and the US.In the same time,China petrochemical industry will experience a year of large new capacity coming on line,large unconventional process capacity commissioning,and private and foreign investors joining the game.But China petrochemical market pattern will change obviously and margin of all industry chains will further go down with extinction effect of beneficial policies,exports overdraft,and slower growth of conventional consumption areas.