船运业应对燃料限硫新规三种方案经济性比较

Economic comparison of shippers’ three solutions in response to IMO sulfur limit rule

国际海事组织(IMO)规定,自2020年1月起全球船用燃料硫含量上限为0.5%,碳排放控制区内燃料硫含量为0.1%。目前有三种应对方案:一是安装脱硫洗涤装置;二是使用低硫燃料油或船用柴油;三是加装液化天然气(LNG)驱动系统。三种方案各有利弊,短期需要考虑可操作性,长期应考虑经济性等。2022年前,受制于供应和产品稳定性,船运业将被迫选择船用柴油。从长期看,基于经济性比较,船运业将选择安装脱硫装置和使用低硫燃料油。国际海事组织新规将对全球船用燃料、润滑油和原油的需求产生影响:高硫与低硫燃料油需求将此消彼长;船用柴油需求将快速增长;轻重质原油价差收窄或倒挂有望得到缓解;润滑油需求将显著增加。

According to regulations from the International Maritime Organization(IMO),the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel worldwide is 0.5%,and the sulfur content of fuel in the carbon emission control zone is 0.1% from January 2020.There are three types of solutions as installing scrambles,using low-sulfur fuel oil or marine diesel,and adding LNG driving system at present.The solutions have cons and pros with operability in the short term and economy in the long term.By 2022,shippers,subject to supply and product stability,will be forced to use marine diesel.In long term,shippers will choose to install scrambles or to use low sulfur fuel oil based on economic comparison.IMO rule will affect market and demand of global marine fuel,lubricating oil and crude oil.It is predicted that demand of high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will rise and fall with a balance on the whole,marine diesel demand will grow rapidly,the spread between light and heavy crude oil will narrow down or ease inversion of prices,and lubricating oil demand will increase significantly.