金融危机与贸易波动被引量：5

Financial Crisis and Trade Fluctuation

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摘要本文依据192个出口国(地区)和169个进口国(地区)的数据,利用引力模型研究金融危机对出口及出口二元边际的当期及滞后期的影响情况,并分析影响危机复苏的机制,将金融危机划分为货币危机、银行危机和违约危机。研究结果显示:货币危机对出口广延边际的影响为正,对集约边际的影响为负,对总出口的影响不显著;银行危机对总出口的影响显著为负;违约危机对总出口的影响显著为正,该正向影响主要来自于广延边际;浮动的汇率制度和较高的劳动力市场流动性对危机爆发后广延边际的复苏起到一定的促进作用。 Using a data set covering 192 export countries and 169 import countries,this study investigated the effects of crisis and their lags on export and the extensive and intensive margins of export by gravity model. By dividing the crises into currency crises,system bank crises and default crises,we find that currency crises have positive effect on extensive margin while negative effect on intensive margin,so the effect of currency crises on export is statistically insignificant;system bank crises have negative effect on export;default crises have negative effect on export,which comes from extensive margin. Finally,we find that after crises floating exchange rate regime and high labor liquidly have a positive effect on recovering of export.

作者李柔梅冬州岳云嵩 LI Rou;MEI Dongzhou;YUE Yunsong

机构地区广西民族大学商学院中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院全球经济与可持续发展研究中心中国信息通信研究院政策与经济研究所

出处《国际贸易问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2019年第5期130-143,共14页 Journal of International Trade

基金广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目"金融危机市场僵化与贸易波动的影响研究"(2019KY0174) 国家自然科学基金面上项目"资本账户开放下的货币政策与宏观审慎监管:基于多部门动态随机一般均衡模型的研究"(71773149) 国家自然科学基金青年项目"全球价值链重构下贸易保护的影响效应测度与治理体系构建"(71803005) 北京市社科基金青年项目"北京市FDI对企业全球价值链升级的‘天花板’效应研究"(18YJC028) 2018年度广西民族大学"相思湖青年学者创新团队"(广西开放型经济发展与金融创新研究团队)

关键词金融危机出口二元边际汇率制度劳动力市场流动性 Financial crisis Export Margins of Trade Exchange Rate Regime Labor Liquidity

分类号 F75 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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参考文献2

1裴平,张倩,胡志锋.国际金融危机对我国出口贸易的影响——基于2007～2008年月度数据的实证研究[J].金融研究,2009(8):103-113. 被引量：64
2陈波,荆然.金融危机、融资成本与我国出口贸易变动[J].经济研究,2013,48(2):30-41. 被引量：36

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