金融危机与贸易波动

Financial Crisis and Trade Fluctuation

本文依据192个出口国(地区)和169个进口国(地区)的数据,利用引力模型研究金融危机对出口及出口二元边际的当期及滞后期的影响情况,并分析影响危机复苏的机制,将金融危机划分为货币危机、银行危机和违约危机。研究结果显示:货币危机对出口广延边际的影响为正,对集约边际的影响为负,对总出口的影响不显著;银行危机对总出口的影响显著为负;违约危机对总出口的影响显著为正,该正向影响主要来自于广延边际;浮动的汇率制度和较高的劳动力市场流动性对危机爆发后广延边际的复苏起到一定的促进作用。

Using a data set covering 192 export countries and 169 import countries,this study investigated the effects of crisis and their lags on export and the extensive and intensive margins of export by gravity model. By dividing the crises into currency crises,system bank crises and default crises,we find that currency crises have positive effect on extensive margin while negative effect on intensive margin,so the effect of currency crises on export is statistically insignificant;system bank crises have negative effect on export;default crises have negative effect on export,which comes from extensive margin. Finally,we find that after crises floating exchange rate regime and high labor liquidly have a positive effect on recovering of export.