贸易政策不确定性研究动态综述

A Sketch of the Research Development on Trade Policy Uncertainty

贸易政策不确定性是近年来贸易政策研究领域的一个非常重要的前沿课题。本文在介绍其研究起源、理论机制、实证度量的基础上,按照其研究对象,全面梳理相关研究:一是关于贸易政策不确定性如何影响贸易自身的研究,包括贸易量、贸易价格与利润、贸易产品创新与质量、出口的国内附加值等;二是关于贸易政策不确定性如何影响其他经济变量的研究,包括微观方面的企业效率、企业储蓄、企业采购模式,以及宏观方面的经济增长、就业、外商投资等。文章最后分析了该领域未来研究的五个发展方向。

Trade policy uncertainty is a very important frontier in trade policy research in recent years. This paper summarizes its research origin,theoretical mechanism and empirical measurement,and then sketches relevant studies in terms of the research objectives:( 1) how trade policy uncertainty impacts international trade,including trade volume,price and markups,product innovation and quality,and domestic value-added share;( 2) how trade policy uncertainty impacts other economic variables,including micro-economic variables such as firm productivity,savings,and procurement modes,as well as macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, employment, and FDI.Finally,the paper points out some potential directions for forward research in this field.