我国"以房养老"模式的经济有效性分析--基于老年人需求决策的视角

The Analysis on the Economic Efficiency of House-for-pension in China: Based on the Perspective of the Demand Decision for the Elderly

“以房养老”作为一种创新的养老模式,可以有效缓解养老资金短缺问题,是对我国现有养老保障体制的有益补充。本文基于老年人需求决策的视角,设计了“以房养老”经济有效性分析模型,并以我国“以房养老”试点城市上海市为例,使用2008年1月至2015年10月上海房地产指数、上海房屋租赁指数和市场利率数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:住房反向抵押贷款模式具有居住所有权隐含价值,能够获得比售房养老模式更高的价值,并可以为老年人提供稳定可靠并延续终生的现金流,因此,“以房养老”的投资营利功能得以确认。本文有助于增强我国老年人对该养老金融产品的认知度,并为其“以房养老”需求决策提供参考依据,从而有利于提高其参与“以房养老”的积极性。

House-for-pension scheme as an innovative pension model, can effectively alleviate the shortage of pension funds, and it is a useful supplement to the existing old-age security system in China. Based on the perspective of the demand decision for the elderly , this paper designs the model of house-for-pension economic efficiency , and takes the pilot cities of house-for-pension in Shanghai as an example using the Shanghai real estate index, Shanghai housing lease index and market interest rate data from January 2008 to October 2015 for empirical analysis. The results show that the housing reverse mortgage model has the implied value of reside nee ownership which can obtai n higher value than the old-age pension model, and can provide stable, reliable and continuous cash flow for the elderly. Therefore, the housing reverse mortgage model has a more effective investment profit function. This study will help to enhance the awareness of the elderly in China on the financial products, and provide a reference for their demand decision-making, which is conducive to improving their participation in house-for-pension scheme.