京津冀区域经济发展与资源环境的脱钩状态及驱动因素

Decoupling Analysis and Influence Factors between Resource Environment and Economic Growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

经济发展与资源环境脱钩是判断区域可持续发展的重要表征,也是评价资源环境问题是否有效缓解的标准。文章结合MFA方法和Tapio脱钩模型全面分析2007—2016年京津冀资源环境问题的动态发展,进而引用结构分解分析(SDA)深入研究其脱钩发生变化的驱动因素和关键路径,为京津冀有的放矢地制定环境治理政策提供建议。结果表明:京津冀区域在实施京津冀协同发展战略后,节能减排领域均逐步达到强脱钩状态,且产业转移升级对河北省脱钩有明显促进作用。为促进京津冀进一步实现强脱钩,北京需关注化石能源的减量化,津冀需关注建筑矿物的减量化,工业固体废弃物的减排是京津冀共同面临的困境;此外,技术效应对实现脱钩的影响度日益加大,京津冀需要加大技术共享。

The decoupling of economic development from the resource environment is an important indicator in the judgement of the regional sustainable development and a criterion for evaluating whether resources and environmental issues are effectively alleviated. This paper combines the MFA method and the Tapio decoupling model to comprehensively analyze the dynamic development of the resources and environment issues in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2007 to 2016. It explores the driving factors and key paths of the decoupling changes applying the Structural Decomposition Model(SDA), and provides suggestions for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to develop environmental governance policies. The results show that after the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated strategy, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region has gradually achieved a strong decoupling state in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction, and the industrial transfer and upgrade have a significant effect on the decoupling of Hebei Province.In order to promote the further decoupling of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Beijing needs to pay attention to the reduction of fossil energy. Tianjin-Hebei needs to pay attention to the reduction of building minerals. The reduction of industrial solid waste is a common dilemma in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Technology effect has an important influence on decoupling day by day, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region needs to increase technology sharing to alleviate the current serious environmental problems.