“一带一路”沿线国家城镇化发展质量综合评价——基于经济、制度、社会视角

Evaluation Index System of Urbanization Development Quality in Countries along the Belt and Road: Based on Economic, Institutional and Social Perspectives

将制度因素加入城镇化质量评价体系中,并使用2000—2016年"一带一路"沿线国家数据,综合考虑指标权重和时间权重,采用综合赋权法从经济水平、制度质量、社会发展三个层次对各国城镇化发展质量进行评价,并分别从时间、空间等维度进行比较分析。结果发现,"一带一路"沿线国家城镇化发展质量总体水平呈上升趋势,但不同地区的发展质量和时间演变趋势存在较大差异。其中,中东欧地区整体质量较高,中亚、南亚地区整体质量偏低。中国排在中上位置,经济因素得分最高,制度因素得分最低。对各国的城镇化发展速度与发展质量进行同步化分析,发现大部分国家属于质量同步型。

Based on the data of countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2016 and taking into account the weight of indicators and the weight of time, this paper adds institutional factor to the quality evaluation system of urbanization and makes a dynamic assessment of the quality of comprehensive urbanization from three levels: economic development,institutional quality and social development. The research results show that the overall urbanization development quality in the sample countries is rising, but there are great differences in the development quality and time evolution trend in different regions. Among them, the overall urbanization development quality in central and eastern Europe is relatively high, while it is relatively low in central and southern Asia. China ranks in the top middle with the highest score in economic factor and the lowest score in institutional factor. In this study, we analyze the speed and quality of urbanization in various countries and find that most countries are of the same quality.