湖北省人口—土地—产业城镇化的时空分异与动态耦合分析

Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Dynamic Coupling of Urbanization of Population,Land and Industry in Hubei Province

基于城乡人口、土地与产业发展的内在关系,构建人口、土地与产业城镇化测度指标,综合运用三角模型和动态耦合度模型,分析2009—2016年湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的时空分异特征,识别三者城镇化动态耦合关系和演进规律,结果表明:①湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化分异特征显著,城镇化属于典型的产业带动型,形成以武汉为主中心,以宜昌、襄阳为副中心的产业城镇化发展格局,城镇化水平高的县域在空间上具有集聚特征,其城镇化的"溢出效应"提升周边县域城镇化水平;②湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的静态耦合度呈上升式演进趋势,县域人口、土地与产业城镇化优劣差距明显缩小,县域间城镇化发展逐渐呈现均衡化态势;③湖北省人口、土地与产业城镇化的动态耦合度明显低于静态耦合度,由于人口、土地与产业城镇化上升空间的有限性和社会经济转型压力,经济发达县域更易表现出人口、土地与产业动态变化的不一致性。

This paper analyzed the urbanization process of Hubei Province from 2009 to 2016 based on the internal relationship of urban-rural essential productive factors constructed measure indicators of population, land and industry at county level in Hubei Province, explored the spatiotemporal variance characteristics of urbanization of population, land and industry using the triangle model and dynamic coupling model. We identified the evolution rules and dynamic coupling relationships among them. The results showed that: 1) The differentiation of urbanization of population, land and industry was significantly different in Hubei Province during 2009 and 2016. Generally, the urbanization of Hubei Province was a typical industry-oriented urbanization type. A spatial pattern referring to one primary center(Wuhan) and two sub centers(Xiangyang and Yichang) had been formed in industry urbanization. The counties with high urbanization degree were congregated in space, and the urbanization degree of the surrounding counties had been improved due to the overflow effect. 2) There was a growth trend for static coupling degree in the urbanization of population, land and industry during 2009 and 2016. The gap of urbanization degree among different counties was narrowing and an equilibrium status was emerging. 3) The dynamic coupling degree among essential productive factors was significantly less than the static coupling degree. The inconsistency of dynamic changes in the urbanization of population, land and industry was more likely occurred in developed counties due to the limitation of upside potential and the pressure of socio-economic transformation.