基于数量化理论Ⅰ的库岸堆积层滑坡致滑因子敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Reservoir Accumulation Landslide Induced Sliding Factors Based on Theory of Quantification Ⅰ

滑坡稳定性与坡内外水触发条件、坡形参数存在复杂的响应关系,建立这种复杂关系的多元统计模型并找出影响坡体失稳的主要诱因,对于滑坡问题的预判及控制有重大价值。以三峡库区库岸堆积层滑坡为例,在库岸涉水滑坡的受力机理与失稳演化分析的基础上,选取k/v(渗透系数k与库水涨落速率v的比值)与坡形参数(凹凸性、坡度、坡高)为致滑因子,通过数量化理论Ⅰ,以滑坡的渗流速度、渗流压力、位移、稳定性系数为目标参数对致滑因子进行敏感性排序,判断出影响滑坡渗流场、应力场、稳定性的主导因子为k/v,而次要因子为坡度、坡高、凹凸性。

There is a complex response relationship between landslide stability and the water inside and outside the slope trigger conditions and the slope shape parameters.It is of great value for predicting and controlling the landslide problems to establish the multivariate statistical model of this complex relationship and find out the main factors affecting the slope instability.The reservoir bank accumulation layer landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is taken as an example.Based on the analysis of stress mechanism and instability evolution of the wading landslides of the reservoir bank,the ratio of the hydraulic conductivity to the fluctuation rate of reservoir water k/v and the slope shape parameters(concave-convex,slope gradient and slope height)are selected as sliding factors.Taking seepage pressure,seepage velocity,displacement and stability coefficient of landslide as the target parameters,the sensitivity sort of the above sliding factors can be gathered through the quantification theory Ⅰ.Furthermore,the dominant factor influencing landslide seepage field,stress field and stability is k/v,while the secondary factors are slope gradient,slope height and concave-convex.