EPC模式下水电工程供应链风险识别与评价

Risks Identifying and Evaluating of Hydropower Project Supply Chain under EPC Mode

为评价EPC模式下水电工程风险等级并判断出总承包商需重点关注的风险因素,从供应链角度识别EPC模式下水电工程建设过程中的风险因素发生的来源,构建出包括5个一级指标和18个二级指标的风险指标体系,考虑指标权重信息的客观性和风险评价的模糊性,建立了物元-灰色聚类模型,运用物元分析法改进AHP确定风险指标权重,用灰色聚类法将风险评价值白化以确定各指标和工程整体的风险等级。实例分析结果显示,最终评价风险结果与工程实际风险情况一致,表明方法有效可行。

To evaluate the risk level of hydropower project under EPC mode and determine the risk factors that the general contractor should pay attention to,the source of risk factors were identified and risk index system was established including 5 first class indexes and 18 second class indexes from the perspective of supply chain.And then matter element grey clustering model was established considering the objectivity of weight and fuzziness of risk evaluation.The AHP was improved by using matter element analysis method to determined the risk index weight,and grey clustering method was used to get risk level of indexes and the project by whitening risk value.Finally,risk evaluation level of case study is consistent with true risk situation of the project.The results prove the effectiveness and feasibility of this method.