突发性水污染事件风险传导研究

Risk Propagation Analysis of Sudden Water Pollution Events

分析水污染事件风险传导要素和过程,推进突发性水污染事件的理论研究。突发性水污染事件的风险传导链中存在风险源、风险传导载体、风险传导节点、风险传导信号和风险传导受害者等5大要素,传导过程包括从风险源到风险传导(危害性)发生的过程和从风险传导(危害性)发生到风险传导(危害性)消失的过程。突发性水污染事件持续时间长、危害严重,需要加大监管与处理力度,从源头遏制突发性水污染事件的发生。突发水污染事件后,应及时采取人工干预措施,缩短污染事件持续时间、降低危害程度。

Sudden water pollution events bring serious damage to the ecological environment and put humans at risk because they arise without warning and are usually large in scale.In this study,we analyzed the risk elements and processes of water pollution incidents based on the statistical analysis of sudden water pollution events occurring in China from 2011 to 2015.The study will advance the theory of and response to sudden water pollution incidents.There are five major elements in the risk propagation chain:risk source,risk propagation,risk nodes,risk signals and risk victims.The risk source can be either natural or man-made and water propagates the risk.The risk nodes occur when the pollutant concentration exceeds an environmental standard.The risk signals can be explicit or implicit.The risk victim refers to all organisms affected by the pollution.During the process of risk propagation,the risk signal is the risk victim and,under the right circumstances,the risk victim becomes a new risk source.The risk propagates from risk source to a water body(not causing violation of an environmental standard)and the risk is propagated along the waterway.The final stage is the decline and disappearance of the risk.Sudden water pollution incidents can be long in duration and cause seriously harm.It is necessary to increase supervision and improve wastewater treatment to minimize the occurrence of sudden water pollution incidents by eliminating the source.After a sudden water pollution incident occurs,intervention measures should be taken as soon as possible to decrease the severity of pollution incidents and reduce the degree of harm.