改革开放40年中国人口迁移变动趋势——基于人口普查和1%抽样调查数据的分析

Trends of Migration in China in Four-decades of Economic Reform: An Analysis based on Censuses and 1% National Population Surveys

文章基于1982~2015年人口普查和1%人口调查数据,计算了所有普查年5年跨县迁移量,从1982年到2010年再到2015年,人口总迁移量从2 863万升到1.46亿,再下降到1.32亿。其中,户籍迁入的永久迁移从2 420万下降到1 976万后,继续下降到1 432万;离开户籍县的临时迁移从443万增长到1.26亿,然后微降至1.18亿;临时性的务工迁移从不足200万增长到7 033万后,再下降至5 707万。文章发现,人口迁移已实现从计划性的永久迁移向市场性的临时迁移的转变,对市场转型、城镇化和工业化起到了促进作用。同时人口迁移实现了从个人行为向家庭行为的转变。与2000年相比,2010年劳动力峰值受高校扩招影响,从5.9%上升到9.5%,已婚青壮年的迁移率比10年前大幅提高,并取代未婚青年人群成为迁移的主流。此外,由累积值计算的2010年儿童留守率高达62.8%,中青年妇女净留守率为21.7%,表明市场化后风险的提高迫使家庭居住分离以劳动力迁移的方式来分散风险。一旦克服风险约束后,回流增加较快。文章建议,政府在政策上营造宽松环境,以保障未来迁移向优质化、家庭化和长期稳定的方向发展。

Based on the data of Chinese censuses and 1%national population surveys from 1982 to 2015,the paper calculates the five-year volume of inter-country migration in all census/survey years.From 1982 to 2010 and then to 2015,the total volume of inter-country migration increased from 28.63 million to 146 million and then fell to 132 million,among which permanent(hukou)migration decreased from 24.20 million to 19.76 million and then to 14.32 million,temporary migration(out of the county of hukou)increased from 4.43 million to 126 million and then slightly decreased to 118 million,and temporary labor migration increased from less than 2 million to 70.33 million and then dropped considerably to 57.07 million.The paper finds that,with the shift of the importance from permanent to temporary migration,migration in China has completed its market transition in the four decades,during which migration plays a key role in the nation’s market transformation,urbanization and industrialization.Meanwhile,there has been also a transition which shifts migration behaviors from individuals to families.Such a transition was strongly evident in changes in migration schedule from 2000 to 2010,including consistent rate enhancement over 70%among married adults between 26 and 40 years old,which was so significant that married migrants have replaced unmarried ones as the majority.In terms of cumulated migration rates,the deficit ratio of the children(0-12)to parents’(24-36)was 0.628,implying then 62.8%of migrants’children were left behind.Moreover,the deficit ratio for wives aged 24-45 years old was 0.2172,indicating a considerable portion of spousal residence separation incurred.This shift of migration behaviors to families is largely a result of risk enhancement in privatization,which forces small rural families to split and use labor migration as a strategy to spread risks across sectors.Huge social and human costs incurred were often neglected in favor of positive effects of remittances.With the level of education much enhanced among new generations,the paper suggests that the government creates a more relaxed environment and formulate new policies to enhance both the quality and the stability of migration by focusing on the transfer of human capital through family settlement.