2018年春霜冻对江西省北部茶叶生产影响的定量评估

Quantitative Evaluation of the Effect of Spring Frost Disaster on Tea Production in Northern Jiangxi in 2018

为探究江西省北部茶区春霜冻发生特点,深入开展茶叶春霜冻灾害定量评估工作,采用实地调查方式,获取江西省北部12个茶场2018年4月7—9日春霜冻的灾情资料和同期气象观测资料,采用加权求和法构建茶叶春霜冻灾害损失定量评估模型,对春霜冻灾害县进行灾害定量评估和检验。结果表明:婺源、浮梁等江西省北部茶叶主产县达到轻—重度春霜冻气象灾害等级,灾害指标等级计算结果与实地灾情调查结果较一致;轻度、中度、重度气象灾害等级的茶场减产率依次为10%—30%、30%—50%和50%以上;根据不同气象灾害等级的受灾面积及其减产率构建江西省北部茶叶春霜冻灾害损失定量评估模型,计算得到此次春霜冻灾害过程造成婺源县春茶直接经济损失为1.23亿元,模型评估结果和实际灾情相一致,模型能较为客观、准确的评估春霜冻灾害对茶叶生产造成的损失。

To explore the characteristics of spring frost and quantitatively evaluate and its effect on tea in northern Jiangxi, the spring frost disasters in 12 tea farms of northern Jiangxi were investigated in situ, combined with the meteorological observations, a quantitative evaluation model of spring tea frost damage was established, and the serious suffered counties caused by spring frost disaster were quantitatively evaluated and tested. The results showed that the main tea producing counties including Wuyuan and Fuliang reached light to severe meteorological disaster grade of spring frost, and the calculated index grades of spring frost were in relative good agreement with the results of field disaster investigation. The yield reduction rate was 10%-30% for light meteorological disasters, 30%-50% for moderate disasters and over 50% for severe disasters, respectively. The quantitative evaluation model was established based on the disaster area of different meteorological disaster grades and its yield reduction rate, and the direct economic loss of spring tea in Wuyuan was evaluated to be 123 miliion yuan estimated by the model, which was consistent with the actual condition. Thus, the quantitative evaluation model can be used to objectively and accurately evaluate the economic loss of tea caused by spring frost.