基于GM(1,1)残差二次修正的铁路货运量预测

Prediction of Rail Freight Volume of China Based on Secondary Residual Error Modification of GM(1,1) Model

铁路货运量是铁路运输能力的重要体现,也是确定铁路交通基础设施建设规模的主要依据。铁路货运量的预测结果是否合理,会对铁路的运输生产及效益产生直接影响。在传统GM(1,1)灰色预测及GM(1,1)残差一次修正模型的基础上,建立GM(1,1)残差二次修正预测模型,从而提高模型预测的精度,并基于残差二次修正后的模型预测未来三年我国铁路的货运量,以期为铁路部门制定未来铁路运输发展战略,合理利用资源,充分发挥铁路运输能力提供参考。

Rail freight volume is an important manifestation of railway transportation capacity and is the primary consideration for determining the scale of railway transportation infrastructure construction. The prediction accuracy of rail freight volume has a direct impact on railway transportation production and benefits. Based on the traditional GM(1,1) grey prediction and GM(1,1) residual correction models, a quadratic modified prediction model of GM(1,1) residual is established to improve the prediction accuracy. Next,the rail freight volume of China is predicted for the next three years based on the model after the second correction of the residuals, to formulate future railway transportation development strategies for railway departments, taking available resources into account and giving full consideration to railway transportation capacity.