地块交通影响下的交通需求预测模型及应用

Traffic Demand Forecasting Model and its Application Based on the Land Influences

经典的“四阶段”交通需求预测模型适合开发建设成熟的地区,对于新建地区并不适用。本文以土地利用为交通需求产生根源作为切入点,旨在研究各路段高峰小时交通量与各规划地块的量化关系。通过地块可达性、高峰小时交通生成率和地块规模预测地块高峰小时交通生成,引入地块交通影响因子,由路段通行能力、空间吸引力水平及路段与地块网络最小路径综合确定。基于地块交通影响因子,本文结合河南郑州楚河汉界文化产业园综合交通规划项目,完成规划路网的交通需求预测,对综合交通规划方案起到有效的量化支撑作用。

The classic four-stage model is suitable for forecasting the traffic demand in the developed and mature regions. However, it is not appropriate for newly constructed regions. This study employs the theory, which emphasizes that land use is the root cause of traffic demand generation, as the point of penetration to research the quantitative relationship between the peak-hour traffic volume of each section and the planned plots. The rate of traffic generation in the peak hours and the scale of plots are then studied using the accessibility of plots to predict the traffic generation during the peak hours. The traffic impact factor of the plots is then introduced, which is determined by the road traffic capacity, level of space attraction, and the minimum path of the plot road network. Finally, this study considers the integrated transportation-planning project of the ChuHan Culture Industrial Park in Zhengzhou, Henan for the research case study and forecasts the traffic demand based on the planning road network, which plays an effective and quantitative supporting role in the comprehensive traffic planning.