海南岛橡胶割胶期的气候适宜度变化特征分析

Variation Characteristics Analysis of Climate Suitability for Rubber Tapping Period in Hainan Island

选取海南省18个市县气象站19612017年逐日气象资料,构建逐月橡胶割胶单要素(温度、日照时数、降水量和降水日数、风速)和综合气候适宜度模型,分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:1)海南岛天然橡胶单要素适宜度对比排序:日照适宜度最高,降水和风速适宜度次之,温度适宜度最低。2)橡胶割胶气候适宜度为0.43~0.80,其中411月较高,适宜割胶;12月至次年3月较低,不适宜割胶。3)天然橡胶割胶适宜度高值区主要分布在海南岛中部地区,该区温度适宜度较高,降水量充足,年平均风速小;低值区主要分布在西部和北部沿海地区,该区主要因为年平均风速大,降雨量不足,易造成干旱;其余地区为适宜度次高值区,该区热量和降水都比较充足,但也容易受高温干旱或风害影响,应予以重点防范。4)19612017年海南岛橡胶割胶期气候适宜度总体呈明显增大趋势,气候倾向率为0.009/10a。

The daily meteorological data at 18 weather stations in Hainan province from 1961 to 2017 was selected to construct monthly single factor (temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation and precipitation days, and wind speed) and integrated climate suitable model of rubber tapping, and the variation characteristic was analyzed. The results are as follows. 1)The single factor suitability order of natural rubber in Hainan Island was sunshine, the most suitable, precipitation and wind speed, appropriate suitable, temperature,the least. 2)The monthly climate suitability of the rubber tapping was 0.43 0.80 , which was high in April to November, low in December to March, when was not suitable for rubber tapping. 3)The high value region of natural rubber suitability distributed in the central part of Hainan Island, where the temperature suitability was high, the precipitation was abundant, and the annual mean wind speed was low. The low value area distributed in the western and northern coastal areas, where the annual mean wind speed was great, precipitation was inadequate, and drought often happened. The remaining areas were the secondary high value region, which were abundant in heat and rainfall, but vulnerable to high temperature, drought or wind damage, so precaution should be took. 4)During the period 1961 2017 , the climate suitability of rubber generally increased significantly in Hainan Island, while the climate trend rate was 0.009/10a.