四川省公路水路货运能耗及碳排放趋势预测方法研究

Study on the Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Trend for Road and Waterway Freight in Sichuan Province

为充分掌握交通运输业的能耗和碳排放量,本文首先利用二次平滑指数法对四川省的GDP值进行预测,再利用货运量与GDP的相关性预测出四川省公路水路货运量,其次根据相关统计数据及典型企业的调研数据得到历年公路水路货运量能耗和碳排放强度,分别对基准情境和绿色情境下的能耗和碳排放强度进行预测,最后得到不同情境下四川省公路水路货运能耗和碳排放量及节能减排趋势,为低碳交通的发展奠定了鉴定的基础。

In order to fully grasp the energy consumption and carbon emissions of transportation,firstly,this paper uses the quadratic smoothing index method to forecast the GDP of Sichuan Province,and forecast the traffic volume of highway and waterway in Sichuan Province by the correlation between freight volume and GDP,Secondly,gets the road over the years road traffic energy consumption and carbon intensity according to the relevant statistical data and typical business research data,then predicts the energy consumption and carbon intensity in the baseline and green scenarios,finally,forecasts the energy consumption and carbon emissions of road waterway and the trend of energy saving and emission reduction in Sichuan Province under different conditions using,laying the foundation for the development of low-carbon transport.