神木市水资源承载能力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Shenmu City

近些年来,依靠煤炭资源优势,神木市社会经济发展迅速,同时对水资源需求也在不断增大。因此,对神木市水资源承载能力进行评价,有助于在可持续发展前提下,明确水资源对社会经济可支撑的最大发展规模,有益于政府的规划调控,维持社会的稳定与和谐。本文采用定额预测法,通过计算人口载量和承载比,对神木市现状及2020年和2030年水资源承载能力评价。结果表明神木市现状年承载能力较强,属于高度不饱和状态,与神木市实际水资源承载状态相近,但是2020年和2030年承载能力较差,属于低度超载状态以上。建议神木市从开源节流角度考虑解决需水量过大的问题,缓解水资源压力,维持或改善生态环境条件。

In recent years,relying on the advantages of coal resources,the social and economic development of Shenmu City is rapid,and the demand for water resources is also increasing. Therefore,the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Shenmu City will help to clarify the maximum scale of development of water resources to the social economy under the premise of sustainable development,benefit the government’s planning and regulation,and maintain social stability and harmony. This paper uses the quota forecasting method to calculate the current situation of Shenmu City and the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in 2020 and 2030 by calculating the population load and carrying ratio. The results show that Shenmu City has a strong annual carrying capacity and is highly unsaturated. It is similar to the actual water resources carrying capacity of Shenmu City,but its carrying capacity is poor in 2020 and 2030,which is above the low overload status. It is suggested that Shenmu City should consider solving the problem of excessive water demand from the perspective of open source and throttling,alleviating water stress and maintaining or improving ecological environment conditions.