P2P网贷行业风险防范指标体系的构建与评价研究

The Research on the Construction and Evaluation of P2P Lending Risk Prevention

本文在对P2P网贷行业发展现状、面临的风险及成因分析的基础上,构建了包括五个一级指标17个二级指标的P2P网贷行业风险防范指标体系。运用层次分析法(AFP)确定了各风险指标的权重,并通过15家P2P网贷平台的实证研究,验证了所构建指标体系的合理性。研究结论表明:在五大风险中,信用风险和操作与技术风险最为突出;P2P网贷行业风险发生的可能性排序依次为信用风险、操作与技术风险、市场风险、流动风险和法律与监管风险。研究结论对有效防范P2P网贷行业风险和相关制度建立有一定参考作用。

The paper constructs a risk-prevention index system of online P2P lending industry based on the analysis of online P2P lending current situation, risks and causes of the development,which includes five first-level indicators and 17 second-level indicators. The weight of each risk index is determined by using AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and we prove the rationality of the index system by using of AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,we conclue some suggestions about risk-prevention of online P2P lending industry.The research indicates that credit risk and operational and technical risk are the most prominent in the five major risks,moreover,These risks is ranked by occurrence probability the order is credit risk, operational and technical risk, market risk, liquidity risk and legal and regulatory risk. We can draw a lessons from the study result to prevent the risk and establish relevant norms of the online P2P lending industry.