基于三角模糊数的地铁坍塌事故风险分析

An analysis of subway collapse accident risk based on triangular fuzzy numbers

为研究地铁坍塌事故影响因素进行地铁风险评估,收集全国2012—2018年2月的101起坍塌事故数据,辨别出地铁风险因子,利用三角模糊数和模糊层次分析法,建立地铁坍塌事故安全评价指标体系,建立三角模糊数互补判断矩阵,归一化后获得指标权重.结果表明,人员管理和天气因素对地铁坍塌事故的产生有重大影响.

A subway risk assessment was conducted to study the factors affecting subway collapse accidents. Data from 101 domestic collapse accidents from 2012 to February 2018 were collected and the subway risk factors were identified. With triangular fuzzy numbers and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), the paper establishes a safety evaluation index system for subway collapse accidents, and a triangular fuzzy number complementary judgment matrix. After normalization, index weights are obtained. The research finds that personnel management and weather factors have a major impact on the occurrence of subway collapse accidents.