厦门市城市生活垃圾的系统动力学预测管控体系

System dynamics modelling on Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) forecasting and controlling in Xiamen City

城市生活垃圾的快速增长产生了一系列的健康和环境问题,为准确预测城市生活垃圾产生量,以此作为生活垃圾管理的决策者分析和制定管理方案的依据.运用系统动力学(SD)方法,以厦门市为例,利用VENSIM软件绘制城市生活垃圾的因果回路图(Causal Loop Diagram),建立系统动力学的存量流量模型(Stock and Flow Model),最后进行仿真模拟及量化分析.预测结果得出2030年厦门市的城市生活垃圾将达到304×10^4 t,通过垃圾分类回收和适当提高垃圾收费等措施可以减少城市生活垃圾的产生.

A series of health and environmental problems have emerged along with the rapid growth of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation. A precise forecasting on the mount of MSW generation could assist as the foundation for decision making on effective and efficient MSW management. This study aims to develop a system dynamics model for MSW forecasting and controlling. Taking one of the special economic zones in China---the Xiamen City as an empirical case, the simulation and quantitative analysis were carried out using the system dynamics (SD) methodology. In specific, the causal loop diagram on MSW generation was plotted in the VENSIM interface, and the stock-and-flow SD model was established through model structure analysis. The simulation results show that the MSW generation amount will reach 3040 thousand tonnes by 2030 in Xiamen City, and this amount could be effectively reduced by conducting those measures such as sorting and recycling garbage and increasing the waste charges.