种麦农户行为选择:来自价格、政策和非农就业的综合响应检验

Farmers’ Behavior Choices:Comprehensive Response Test from Price,Policy and Non-Agricultural Employment

基于2003-2011年全国农村固定观察点数据,选用扩展Nerlove模型及系统GMM 估计方法,引入市场化政策和非农就业水平等变量构建农户小麦动态供给反应模型,探究农户粮食种植决策对价格和非价格因素的反应程度.研究发现:①无论短期还是长期,农户小麦种植对价格始终保持较高的敏感程度.②非农就业在短期内对农户小麦种植直接影响结果不显著,但间接提高了农户对小麦生产成本的敏感程度,这意味着非农就业水平的提高使得生产成本对小麦的负面减产效应显著增加.③市场化政策始终是影响粮食市场价格变动及农户粮食种植决策的重要因素.因此,建议完善对粮食生产的补贴制度,通过杠杆调节冲破生产成本对粮食生产的“桎梏”,同时确定合理的粮食最低收购价水平,科学制定调整幅度,引导农户合理调整种植结构.

Based on the data of rural fixed observation points from 2003 to 2011 and employment of the extended Nerlove model and SYSTEM-GMM estimation method,this paper introduces variables of grain marketization policy and non-agricultural employment level to construct a dynamic farmers’ supply response model.And the results of empirical analysis explore the extent to which farmers’ wheat planting decisions respond to price and non-price factors and show that:(1) Whether in the short-term or long-term,farmers’ wheat planting decision has always been sensitive to the price.(2) The direct impact of non-agricultural employment on farmers’ wheat acreage is not very significant in the short term,but it indirectly increases the sensitivity of farmers to wheat production costs,which means that the growth in the level of non-agricultural employment increases the negative production-reducing effect of production costs on wheat.(3) Marketization policy plays a persistently important role in affecting farmers’ wheat planting.This paper proposes to improve the subsidy policy for grain production,to break down the “clam” of production costs through leverage adjustment,to determine the reasonable minimum purchase price level,to scientifically formulate adjustment ranges,and to guide farmers to rationally adjust the planting structure.