基于ARIMA简单季节模型的河南省快递业务量预测

Henan Province Express Traffic Forecast Based on ARIMA Simple Season Model

本文对发展迅速的快递行业进行研究,选取河南省月度快递业务量,考虑到月度快递业务量的趋势性、季节效应,通过建立ARIMA简单季节模型对快递业务量进行预测。结果表明,该模型预测效果较好。

This paper studies the fast-growing express delivery industry, selects the monthly express delivery volume of Henan Province, and considers the trend and seasonal effect of monthly express delivery volume, and forecasts the express delivery volume by establishing the ARIMA simple seasonal model. The results show that the model has a good prediction effect.