投资专有技术进步对中美两国经济影响的比较分析

Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Investment Specific Technology Progress on China and USA

为研究投资专有技术进步对中美两国经济的影响,本文构建了一个内含投资专有技术冲击机制的中美两国新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型。基于中美两国1981~2017年实际GDP和固定资产投资波动数据,应用贝叶斯推断,发现加入专有技术冲击机制能够提升模型对真实数据的契合度。实证结果表明:专有技术冲击相比于中性技术冲击更能够解释经济中的短期动态变化;正向中性技术冲击下的劳动生产率呈上升态势,而专有技术冲击下的劳动生产率呈短期内下降、长期内上升态势;中国受专有技术冲击响应速度和幅度要大于美国。专有技术进步体现于先进装备更新换代,建议推动我国先进装备制造业创新发展,促进我国先进装备的推广应用。

In order to study the impact of investment specific technology shocks on the economy of China and USA,a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of China and the USA with the investment specific technology mechanism is construsted.Based on the 1981~2017 years’ actual GDP and fixed assets investment volatility data of two countries,Bayesian inference is applied to find that the addition of investment specific technology mechanism can increase model’s fitness.The results show that investment specific technology shocks can explain the short-term dynamic changes in the economy more than neutral technology shocks;the labor productivity under the impact of positive neutral technology shocks is rising,while the labor productivity under the impact of positive investment specific technology shocks is decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long run;both speed and magnitude of China’s response on investment specific technology mechanism are greater than that of the USA.The progress of proprietary technology is reflected in the innovation of advanced equipment.It is suggested to promote the innovation and development of the advanced equipment manufacturing industry in China and promote the application.