城镇化水平约束下金融发展对经济增长的门槛效应测度——以东北边境地区为例

The threshold effect measurement of financial development on economic growth under the constraint of urbanization level——Taking the northeast border region as an example

在对外开放水平和资本市场发展有限的条件下,金融市场的有序发展对区域经济增长具有现实意义,地区城镇化水平是金融系统发挥中介效应和调配功能的主要影响因素.以城镇化水平(Xurb)作为门槛变量,利用2004-2017年的东北边境地区13个地级市面板数据构建门槛模型研究发现,金融发展对经济增长存在明显的三门槛效应,在Xurb<0.585、0.585≤Xurb<0.670和Xurb>0.729的区域,金融发展对经济增长产生了较强的阻碍作用;在0.585≤Xurb<0.670的区域,金融发展对城镇化有微弱推动作用.随着城镇化水平跨越不同的门槛值,金融发展对经济增长的影响方向和强度在时间尺度上呈现出倒"U"型的路径.最后,根据以上结论提出相应的政策建议.

Under the conditions of openness to the outside world and limited development of capital market,the orderly development of financial market has practical significance for regional economic growth.The level of regional urbanization is the main influencing factor of the financial system to play the intermediary effect and deployment function.Taking the urbanization level(Xurb)as the threshold variable,this paper uses the panel data of 13 prefecture-level cities in the northeast border region to construct the threshold model in 2004-2017.It is found that financial development has obvious three threshold effects on economic growth,in Xurb<0.585,in the region of 0.585≤Xurb<0.670,and in Xurb>0.729,financial development has a strong hindrance to economic growth;in the region of 0.585≤Xurb<0.670,financial development has a weak role in promoting urbanization.As the level of urbanization crosses different thresholds,the direction and intensity of the impact of financial development on economic growth presents an inverted"U"-shaped path on the time scale.Finally,based on the above conclusions,the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.