塔里木河干流区极端气温变化特征研究

Study on the Change Characteristics of Extreme Temperature of the Mainstream of Tarim River

为研究塔里木河干流极端气温的变化特征,利用新疆塔里木河干流6个气象站1962-2015年的极端气温资料,采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变性检验和小波分析法研究塔里木河干流极端气温的变化趋势和周期性特征。研究结果表明:①塔里木河干流极端气温均呈现显著上升趋势,但不同河段气象站点测得的极端温度增温速度不同。极端高温的增温速度具体表现为:铁干里克>阿克苏>若羌>轮台>阿拉尔>库尔勒。极端低温的增温速度表现为:阿克苏>轮台>库尔勒>若羌>铁干里克>阿拉尔。②塔里木河干流不同河段的极端气温发生突变年份不同。极端高温发生突变年份具体为:上游段,1982年和2001年;中游段,1985年和1989年;下游段,1989年和1994年。极端低温发生突变年份具体为:上游段,1972年;中游段,1988年;下游段,1973年和1982年。③极端高温呈现2个增-减的周期性震荡,变化周期为20 a左右;极端低温也呈现2个增-减的周期性震荡,变化周期为18 a左右。整体来看,塔里木河干流不同河段在20世纪80年代中后期极端气温都出现了显著的周期性震荡。

In order to research the change characteristics of extreme temperature of the mainstream of Tarim River, based on extreme temperature data from six meteorological stations in the mainstream of Tarim River in Xinjiang, the linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to study the change trend and periodicity characteristics of extreme temperature in the different river reaches of Tarim River basin. The results are as follows:① The extreme highest temperature and extreme lowest temperature have an significant increasing trend. The increasing rate of the extreme highest temperature in the different region is different,such as the follows:Aksu>Lutai>Korla>Tieganlik>Ruoqiang>Alar. The increasing rate of the extreme lowest temperature in the different region is also different,such as the follows:Tieganlik>Aksu>Ruoqiang>Luntai>Alar>Korla.② In the different reaches of the mainstream of Tarim River, the mutation of the extreme highest temperature occurred in the different year, such as the follows:in 1982 and 2001 in the upper reaches, in 1985 and 1989 in the middle reaches, and in 1989 and 1994 in the lower reaches. The Mutation of the extreme lowest temperature occurred in 1972 in the upper reaches, in 1988 in the middle reaches, and in 1973 and 1982 in the lower reaches.③ The extreme highest temperature shows two increasing-decreasing periodic fluctuations, and the time change period was about 20 years. The extreme lowest temperature also shows two increasing-decreasing periodic fluctuations, and the time change period was about 18 years. Thus, the significant periodic fluctuations in the different reaches of the mainstream of Tarim River appears in the mid to late 1980s.