广东省城镇化与生态环境耦合协调的空间特征及影响因素研究

Spatial Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Coupling Coordination Between Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Guangdong Province

为研究广东省快速城镇化与生态环境系统的相互影响关系,本文应用耦合协调度模型、地理探测器等方法对1995年、2005年、2016年广东省城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度及影响因素进行了分析。研究表明:①以广东省为研究区,1995—2016年广东省城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度呈持续上升趋势,整体呈S型曲线,经历了严重失调—中度协调—优质协调和城镇化滞后—相对平衡—生态环境滞后的过程。②以21个地级市为研究区,1995—2016年各地级市城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度持续提高,属优质和良好协调型的区域以珠海、深圳为核心逐步向外围扩展,表现出明显的核心—边缘特征。③生态环保政策、土地开发强度是不同时期影响21个地级市城市化与生态环境耦合协调度的共性因素。同时,2005年以前,产业结构及人口和GDP的快速增长是主要的影响因素;2005年以后,人口高度集聚、土地快速开发、科技和技术创新等因素则发挥着更重要的作用。

based on the coupling coordination degree model and the geodetector, the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and ecological environment of Guangdong province in 1995, 2005 and 2016, and its driving factors was analyzed. The results showed that: firstly, taking the Guangdong province as study area, the coupling coordination degree showed an increasing tendency, similar to the “S” curve. The urbanization-environment relation in the study area experienced a transformation of “severe?imbalance- moderate coordination- excellent coordination” and “urbanization lagged-relative balance-environment lagged”. Secondly, taking the 21 cities as study area, the coupling coordination degree increased in most of the cities from 1995 to 2016. The area in excellent coordination was expanding from Shenzhen, Zhuhai to the skirt areas, showing a clear core-edge feature. Thirdly, the environment protection policy and land use intensity were the common factors that impacted the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and eco-environment in the 21 cities. The industrial structure, population and rapid growth of economic were the main driving factors before 2005, and then the population density, rapid growth of construction land and technological innovation played a more important role after 2005.