货币的方向

The Direction of Money

当“滞”与“胀”同时出现时,货币政策操作往往比较纠结。此时,银行间市场利率短期内容易呈现波动性特征,其最终走向仍取决于成本冲击退却后总需求的变化。值得一提的是,实证研究显示近年来房价而非汇率对货币政策的边际调整形成了一定掣肘。在“类滞胀”的背景下,叠加对房价等考量,银行间市场利率短期难有趋势性变化。

When “stagnation” and “inflation” occur simultaneously, the choice of the monetary policy operations tends to be a headache. At this point, the interbank market interest rates are likely to be volatile in the short term, yet its final path still depends on the change in aggregate demand after the retreat of the cost shock. It is worth mentioning that empirical research shows that in recent years, the house prices, rather than the exchange rate, have imposed constraints on the marginal adjustment of monetary policy. In the context of a "quasi stagflation", coupled with considerations on house prices and other factors, the interbank market interest rates are unlikely to present any tendency changes in the short term.