美国国债收益率曲线倒挂的表现、成因与影响

The Inverted US Government Bond Yield Curve: Facts, Causes and Influences

2019年3月22日以来,美国国债收益率曲线十年来首次出现倒挂,且余音未了。文章系统回顾了上世纪50年代以来美国国债收益率曲线倒挂的表现与成因,指出美国国债收益率曲线倒挂对经济增长、股市、货币政策、非金融企业杠杆率等都有明显影响且总体偏负面,对此我国要密切关注,尤其是要做好输入性风险的管理。

Since 22 March 2019, the US government bond yield curve has inverted for the first time in a decade, and the trend is continuing. This article systematically reviews the yield curve inversion in the US since 1950s and analyses the causes. It points out that the inverted US government bond yield curve has a significantly huge and generally negative impact on economic growth, stock market, monetary policy, and non-financial corporates’ leverage ratio. In this regard, China should pay a close attention to such a phenomenon and should strengthen the management of imported risks.