商业健康保险发展的影响因素实证研究——以合肥市为例

An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of the Development of Commercial Health Insurance——Taking Hefei as an Example

基于2009—2017年合肥市统计数据,结合灰色关联分析法对商业健康保险发展的影响因素进行相关性分析。结果显示:宏观经济发展、人民生活水平、医疗保障水平是影响合肥市商业健康保险发展的主要因素,关联度依次减小;农民是购买商业健康保险人群的重要组成部分,农村地区商业健康保险的潜在需求十分巨大。在此基础上,利用GM(1,1)模型,预测合肥市未来五年商业健康保险在新时代背景下的保费收入情况。最后提出加快合肥市商业健康保险发展的针对性政策。

Based on the statistical data of Hefei city from 2009 to 2017, the influencing factors of the development of commercial health insurance based on grey correlation analysis method was analyzed in this paper. Empirical results show that the main factors affecting the development of commercial health insurance in Hefei are macroeconomic development, people s living standards, and medical security, as the same time, the correlation degree decreases in turn. Farmers are an important part of purchasing commercial health insurance, and the potential demand for commercial health insurance in rural areas is enormous. On this basis, using the GM(1,1) model to predict the premium income of Hefei City s commercial health insurance in the context of the new era in the next five years. Finally, some reasonable suggestions to speed up the development of Hefei commercial health insurance were put forward.