“伊斯兰国”组织在阿富汗的发展及其制约因素

The“Islamic State”in Afghanistan:Developments and Constraints

"伊斯兰国"组织在阿富汗的发展是其战略的重要组成部分。自2014年夏季以来,该组织充分利用自身优势、灵活的策略和阿富汗复杂的局势,采取渐进路线,先后经历酝酿、高速发展和僵持三个发展阶段。"伊斯兰国"组织在阿富汗的发展轨迹与其发展的整体态势紧密相关,同时又受制于阿富汗国内外各方的打击、复杂的本地政治生态和激进意识形态的"水土不服"等因素。目前,尽管该组织仍威胁阿富汗的安全和发展,但其扩张已得到有效遏制。未来"伊斯兰国"组织在阿富汗的存在和发展将兼具长期性和反复性等特点。

The development of the "Islamic State"in Afghanistan is an important part of its global agenda. Since the middle 2014,it had made full use of its advantages,flexible strategy and the complicated domestic situation, consolidating its infiltration in Afghanistan. Its advancement in Afghanistan is closely related to its development in the Middle East and other part of the world. Under the strikes of international community and local powers,and restrained by its complicated political ecosystem and its own extreme ideology,the organization ’s development has been contained. In prospect,the threats from "Islamic State"will be prolonged and constant.