索马里伊斯兰极端组织的发展及影响

Islamist Extremist Groups in Somalia: Trends and Implications

冷战后,伊斯兰极端组织在索马里迅速发展,成为该国乃至非洲之角面临的最严重的非传统安全威胁之一。从根源上来看,索马里伊斯兰极端组织是体系层面、地区层面与国家层面结构性因素互动的综合产物。索马里的伊斯兰极端组织在其发展过程中形成了理念相互共享、成员相互渗透和行动策略相互模仿等特点,境外极端分子在其中扮演着重要的角色。索马里伊斯兰极端组织频繁发动暴力恐袭,不仅对索马里的民族国家构建造成挑战,而且极大地冲击了非洲之角的国际关系格局。面对索马里伊斯兰极端组织的泛滥,国际社会和地区力量均采取了一系列应对措施,但目前取得的成效十分有限,其主要原因在于索马里伊斯兰极端组织对意识形态的多重"包装"和其管理能力的不断提升,以及各方力量在打击索马里伊斯兰极端组织过程中的相互掣肘。

After the Cold War,Islamic extremist organizations have rapidly developed in Somalia and become a serious non-traditional threat to the country and the Horn of Africa. Islamic extremist organizations in Somalia are comprehensive outcomes of interaction among structural,regional and state factors. Those organizations have formed historical sequences from mutual sharing of ideas,interinfiltration between members and mutual action strategy imitation. Overseas extremists play a significant role there. Islamic extremist organizations in Somalia have launched brutal terrorist attacks frequently,which not only hinders the national reconstruction,but also harms the Horn of Africa. The overflowof Islamic extremist organizations in Somalia have made the international community and regional powers take a series of countermeasures. But their efficiency is very limited so far,because the extremist organization have improved their ability of ideology"portfolio"and management,while counter powers are in dispute.