考虑系统性与时变性的交通事故风险成本模型

A Model for Calculating Traffic Accident Risk Costs by Considering Systematic and Time-Varying Properties

针对交通事故风险成本计算方法需考虑交通事故风险的系统性与时变性,利用结构模型分析交通安全系统各要素间的相互关系及其影响,构建了交通事故风险成本计算模型.以车辆要素为建模的关键,通过聚类分析方法建立交通事故风险的基本模型.以连续行驶时间、车速、道路转弯半径、道路纵坡以及天气等参数为动态影响因素,结合广义成本理论,建立适用于各出行方式的交通事故风险成本模型.以珠海市某一级公路的实际调查数据作为算例,探讨交通事故风险成本模型的应用.算例结果表明:不同出行方式的交通事故风险成本差异较大,合理选择交通出行方式可有效降低交通事故风险成本及出行成本,该模型能够兼顾交通事故风险的系统性与时变性,更加符合客观实际,具有较好的合理性.

A model for calculating traffic accident risk costs need to consider both systematic and time-varying properties. Taking this into account,the authors of this paper applied the structural model to analyze the interrelation of various elements of the traffic safety system and their influence,and constructed a model for traffic accident risk cost calculation. The vehicle factors were taken as the key for modeling,and a basic model to figuring out the traffic risk was introduced through cluster analysis. Taking such parameters as continuous driving time,speed,curvature,slope and weather conditions as the dynamic influencing factors and based on the general cost theory,a universal model to calculate the risk costs of different travel modes was established. The data of an actual survey of one arterial highway in Zhuhai was taken as a sample to analyze the application of the traffic risk cost calculation model. The results of analysis showed that the traffic risk costs were considerably different due to different travel modes chosen by people. A reasonable choice in the means of travelling would effectively reduce the risk costs of traffic accidents and the primary travel costs. As the model proposed herein takes into account both systematic and time-varying properties,it should be in better conformity with the objective reality and thus have satisfactory rationality.