京津冀产业布局对人口空间分布的影响及疏导建议

The Influence of Industrial Layout on the Spatial Distribution of Population and Suggestions for its Guidance in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei

本文运用空间计量方法并且构建地理相邻权重矩阵,研究京津冀地区 2012-2016 年 13 个城市的人口空间集聚状况。在此基础上,运用空间杜宾模型,考察人口空间集聚与产业布局的空间依赖关联程度以及空间溢出效应,并给出以产业疏导人口的具体建议。研究表明:人口分布和产业布局的空间关联程度较高,第二、三产业专业化水平提高对本地区当年人口集聚起促进作用,对周边地区起抑制作用。以产业疏导人口时,第三产业中部分行业的迁移对人口疏导的潜力更为显著。

Based on the 2012-2016 panel data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, we use spatial measurement method and construct a geographical neighboring weight matrix to analyze the spatial agglomeration of population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. On this basis, we establish the spatial Dubin model to analyze the relationship between population spatial agglomeration and industrial layout in terms of spatial correlation and spatial spillover effects and give specific suggestions about population regulation. We find that the spatial correlation of population distribution and industrial layout is relatively high in space. The high level of specialization of the secondary and tertiary industries has a positive effect on the growth of population in local region, but restrains the growth in the surrounding areas. The migration of some industries in the tertiary industry has a greater potential for population channeling.