技术创新下的企业动态竞价行为研究——基于中国光伏制造企业样本的埃奇沃斯模型实证分析

A Research of Dynamic Pricing Competition under Technical Innovation——Empirical Study of Chinese PV Module Manufacturers(2010-2017)Based on Edgeworth Cycle Framework

基于寡头市场结构架构的埃奇沃思价格循环理论描述了企业存在先后行动序列下的动态竞价行为,并指出在静态成本的封闭市场环境中,在位大企业倾向于维持当前的价格水平,但具备成本等优势的小企业往往更有激励触发价格战。本文在此基础上修正了技术进步和新企业进入的假设,对行业动态发展中的企业竞价行为进行了全新的架构。结合光伏企业在过去八年(2010-2017)中的竞价数据实证分析发现,相比最初进行技术革新的企业,第一批技术追随者以及新进入行业的竞争者有更大概率发动价格战,行业内的在位企业受制于前期投入成本的压力,往往要在一段时间后(收回一定比例前期成本)才会追随降价行为。结合时间序列样本的社会福利分析,这样的行业创新的外溢性周期在产业从幼稚期到成熟期过程中大大缩短,一方面供求双方从技术创新中的获益速度变得越来越快,另一方面,得益于竞争带来的成本降低以及产品更新换代的加快,首批技术创新的企业投资回收速度显著提高。由此看出,技术效仿和追随带来的创新外溢性并没有影响光伏产业创新的速度和企业的积极性。

Edgeworth price cycles theory based on oligopolistic market efficiently describes the dynamic price competition among firms. With static cost and closed market assumption, theory claims that the dominated firms trend to maintain current price, however entering firms with cost or technical advantages more likely to trigger the price war. Paper strengthens the classical framework of Edgeworth price cycles by introducing technical innovation and firms’ entry behaviors. Applying the sample from price bidding of domestic PV market, paper empirically discusses the exist of Edgeworth price cycle in PV industry(2010-2017). The results reveal the important conclusion from augmented model. Limited by sunk cost, technical leaders have less incentive to trigger price war in fact. But technical followers, enjoying the spillover effect, frequently start the price deduction. The dynamic test based on welfare analysis discovers that the duration of spillover effect’s absorbing is significantly shorten in past years with the mature of industry and technology. On one side, both suppliers and consumers could be benefited by technical innovation more quickly. On the other hand, simulated by the speed of cost optimization and product updating, the pay-off period of R&D is shrunken for technical leaders. It continuously encourages firms’ technical input, and incentives the cost-price deduction in whole industry.