委内瑞拉与美国断交对全球原油市场的影响

The Impact of Venezuela’s Disconnection with the United States on the Global Crude Oil Market

近期,OPEC轮值主席国委内瑞拉同世界最大原油生产国美国断交,引发南美局势混乱的同时,对全球原油市场可能产生较大影响。分析委内瑞拉原油市场基本面,特别是“委美”能源贸易的情况;从短期、中期、长期分别分析“委美断交”可能对国际原油市场产生的影响,并根据委内瑞拉未来政局演变的若干种可能,做了对原油市场多情景的影响分析;针对我国石油石化企业现状,分别从企业高质量发展、国家能源安全、海外投资风险等方面提出相关应对措施及建议。

Recently,Venezuela,the Chairman-in-Office of OPEC,has broken off diplomatic relations with the United States,the world's largest crude oil producer,which has caused chaos in South America and may have a greater impact on the global crude oil market.Firstly,the paper analyses the basic aspects of Venezuela's crude oil market,especially the situation of energy trade between Venezuela and the United States.Secondly,it analyses the possible impact of the break-up of Venezuela-US diplomatic relations on the international crude oil market in the short,medium and long term respectively.Finally,according to several possibilities of Venezuela's future political evolution,it makes an analysis of the impact on the multi-scenarios of the crude oil market.The current situation of oil and petrochemical enterprises,respectively,from the enterprise's high-quality development,national energy security,overseas investment risk and other aspects of relevant countermeasures and suggestions.